Tampa Bay Rays at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays handed the Washington Nationals a 6-2 defeat at Nationals Park on April 3, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected clearly as pre-game home win probability of 54 percent collapsed to 0 percent by the final out. Tampa Bay scored in the first, second, and fourth innings to build an early cushion that Washington never seriously threatened, finishing with nine hits against the Nationals' four.
The game's most consequential moment by win-probability impact came in the bottom of the second, when Lane Thomas struck out against Drew Rasmussen with a swing of negative 8.8 percent win probability for the Nationals, effectively extinguishing an early Washington threat. Rasmussen was dominant throughout his outing, finishing as the game's top pitcher by a wide margin with a cumulative win-probability contribution of plus-35.8 percent. The Rays extended their lead in the fourth when Isaac Paredes hit a home run off Trevor Williams, a swing worth plus-7.0 percent win probability that pushed the model firmly toward Tampa Bay. Brandon Lowe's flyout in the top of the second also registered a notable plus-6.6 percent WPA contribution for the Rays, a reflection of how Nationals pitcher Trevor Williams was already laboring in the early innings. In the bottom of the seventh, Ildemaro Vargas grounded out against reliever Jason Adam at negative 6.3 percent for Washington, closing what had been one of the Nationals' final meaningful opportunities.
Among position players, Paredes led Tampa Bay with plus-5.8 percent WPA and plus-1.0 RE24, while Lowe contributed plus-5.5 percent WPA. Luke Raley posted the game's best RE24 figure among batters at plus-2.7, pairing it with plus-4.7 percent WPA. Jason Adam backed Rasmussen out of the bullpen with plus-6.3 percent WPA. Washington's pitching staff, by contrast, surrendered traffic early and often, and the Nationals' two errors compounded a night in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate never swung back in the home team's favor after the opening frames.