The Milwaukee Brewers silenced a Dodger Stadium crowd on October 14, 2026, defeating Los Angeles 6-2 at UNIQLO Field to hand the Dodgers a loss the DiamondIQ model's estimate had made them favorites to avoid, with a pre-game home win probability of 54% that collapsed entirely to 0% by the final out. The game was a taut, low-scoring affair through five innings before the decisive sequences arrived in the sixth and seventh. Los Angeles drew first blood in the first inning and appeared to build genuine momentum in the bottom of the sixth, when Will Smith's two-run double off Abner Uribe shifted the win probability by 19.8 percentage points in the Dodgers' favor, with walks to Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Tucker in the same frame adding further pressure and compounding Milwaukee's deficit to 2-1 at that stage.
Milwaukee answered with stunning efficiency in the top of the seventh, turning the game on its head against Blake Snell with back-to-back home runs. Jake Bauers connected first, a swing that produced the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus-24.8 percentage points, erasing the Dodgers' advantage in one moment. Garrett Mitchell followed with a home run of his own, adding another 13.4 points of win probability to the Brewers' ledger and effectively breaking the game open. Milwaukee added single runs in the eighth and ninth to extend the final margin to four.
Robert Gasser led all pitchers with a game-high plus-30.6 WPA, anchoring the Brewers' staff through the middle innings, while DL Hall contributed plus-23.5 WPA in relief to lock down the outcome. On the offensive side, Bauers finished as the game's most impactful batter at plus-21.0 WPA and plus-0.9 RE24, with Mitchell matching that RE24 figure at plus-13.1 WPA. Will Smith's sixth-inning double gave him the top mark among Dodgers at plus-9.9 WPA, but Los Angeles ultimately had no answer once Milwaukee's seventh-inning eruption shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate decisively and permanently toward the visitors.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.