Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Atlanta Braves 4-1 at Truist Park on October 7, 2026, handing the home side a loss despite the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving Atlanta a 54 percent chance of winning. The Braves struck first with a run in the bottom of the first, but Los Angeles answered in the second and kept the game tight through six innings before pulling away decisively in the seventh. The Dodgers finished with five hits and committed no errors, while Atlanta managed three hits and was hurt by two errors of their own.

The decisive moment came in the top of the seventh, when Andy Pages delivered a single off Robert Suarez that swung win probability by 21.8 percentage points in the Dodgers' favor, effectively breaking the game open. That two-run seventh frame gave Los Angeles the cushion they needed, and a final run in the ninth closed out the scoring at 4-1. On the Atlanta side, Ozzie Albies produced the game's most meaningful positive swing for the Braves with a double off Alex Vesia in the bottom of the sixth, adding 8.2 percentage points of win probability, but the rally stalled when Drake Baldwin lined out and Matt Olson grounded out against Vesia, each play costing the Braves 5.6 percentage points. Austin Riley's flyout against Edwin Díaz to end the ninth was ultimately academic.

Pages led all position players with a WPA of plus-21.7 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.4, making him the clear offensive catalyst for Los Angeles. On the pitching side, Tyler Mahle topped the staff with a WPA contribution of plus-21.9 percent, followed by Edgardo Henriquez at plus-18.4 percent and Tyler Glasnow at plus-13.4 percent, a collective effort that rendered Atlanta's pre-game edge meaningless and brought the DiamondIQ model's final home win probability all the way to zero.