Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Atlanta Braves 3-1 at Truist Park on October 6, 2026, with all three Dodgers runs scoring in a decisive fourth inning that effectively settled the outcome. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Atlanta a 54% win probability as the home side, but by the final out that figure had collapsed to zero. The pivotal sequence came in the top of the fourth against Chris Sale, when Enrique Hernández connected for a home run that shifted win probability by 19.5 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game. Freddie Freeman followed with a home run of his own off Sale, adding another 9.7 percentage points to the Dodgers' advantage and pushing the two-pitch barrage into decisive territory.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto was the central figure on the mound, finishing as the game's top pitcher by WPA at plus 29.5 percentage points. He navigated a fifth inning that carried genuine tension, as Rowdy Tellez drew a walk that swung win probability 11.0 points in Atlanta's favor and represented the Braves' most credible threat to get back into the contest. Atlanta ultimately scratched across a single run in the bottom of the fifth, but Yamamoto and the Dodgers bullpen held firm. Tanner Scott followed with a plus 13.3 percentage point performance out of the bullpen, and Edwin Díaz closed things out despite a ninth inning that briefly tightened. Ozzie Albies doubled off Díaz for a 10.9-point swing, and Mike Yastrzemski's groundout to end the inning was actually scored as an 11.1-point positive for the Dodgers' win probability, reflecting how close the final threat came before the door closed.

Hernández finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 15.0, supported by a RE24 of plus 1.0, underscoring that his fourth-inning home run carried both situational and contextual weight. Tellez and Yastrzemski each topped 11.0 in WPA for Atlanta but the Braves' two errors compounded their offensive limitations against a Dodgers staff that allowed only one run on five hits. The model's lean throughout the middle innings favored the Dodgers as their lead held, and the final 3-1 margin reflected a game that was functionally decided by a two-home-run burst in the game's fourth frame.