Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| SD | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 4 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres defeated the Chicago Cubs 4-1 at Petco Park on September 30, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win moving from 54% before first pitch to 100% by game's end. San Diego did most of its damage in two early innings, plating two runs in the second and two more in the fourth to build a lead the Cubs never seriously threatened.
The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the fourth, when Gavin Sheets connected on a home run off Daniel Palencia that swung win probability 17.4 percentage points in San Diego's favor, the single largest play of the game by that measure. The Cubs had briefly shown life in the top of that same inning — Nico Hoerner singled off Nick Pivetta to generate a 7.5-point swing, and Carson Kelly was hit by a pitch off Bradgley Rodriguez for an additional 5.4-point move — but Dansby Swanson's flyout, which cost Chicago 9.1 percentage points of win probability, extinguished the threat. Xander Bogaerts had also helped set the tone for San Diego with a single off Kevin Gausman in the second inning worth 6.3 points of win probability added.
On the mound, Bradgley Rodriguez was the Padres' most impactful arm, contributing 12.6 percentage points of win probability added, followed by Adrian Morejon at 9.5 and Jason Adam at 5.0. Chicago finished with five hits and no errors but was unable to string together the kind of sustained pressure necessary to overcome Petco Park's pitching staff on the night. Sheets led all position players in both WPA at plus-17.4 and RE24 at plus-1.8, while Bogaerts and Hoerner were the only other batters to finish in positive win-probability territory.