New York Mets at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the New York Mets 6-4 at Nationals Park on September 27, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Washington victory climbing from a pre-game 56% to a final 100% as the Nationals built and protected their lead through nine innings. The game unfolded with both teams trading runs early — each scoring once in the first — before New York seized a brief advantage with a three-run second inning, capped by Ronny Mauricio's home run off DJ Herz that shifted win probability 9.3 points in the Mets' favor. Washington answered immediately in the bottom of the third, where Andrés Chaparro delivered a home run off Sean Manaea worth +10.6% in win probability, and Jacob Young followed with a run-scoring single adding another +8.7%, swinging the game's complexion back toward the home side. Chaparro returned in the bottom of the fifth with another home run off Manaea, this one shifting the model's estimate by +12.4% and effectively closing the door on a Mets rally.

Chaparro was the game's most impactful individual performer, finishing with a cumulative WPA of +28.9% and an RE24 of +2.3, his two long balls the central factor in Washington's victory. Marcus Semien contributed a +12.6% WPA while Mauricio, despite a costly strikeout against Erik Tolman in the top of the eighth that cost the Mets 7.3% in win probability, still finished at +7.0% WPA and +1.8 RE24. Washington's pitching staff was equally decisive, with Riley Cornelio leading the way at +15.8% WPA, followed by Will Dion at +12.0% and Tolman at +10.9%, the three combining to neutralize New York's lineup over the game's final stretch and preserve the two-run margin.