New York Mets at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets handed the Washington Nationals a 7-1 defeat at Nationals Park on September 26, 2026, a game that remained competitive through six innings before a decisive seventh-inning eruption settled the outcome. The DiamondIQ model opened with Washington holding a 55% home win probability, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out as the Mets scored four runs in the seventh, one in the eighth, and two more in the ninth to pull away convincingly.

The turning point arrived in the top of the seventh inning against Nationals starter Jake Irvin, when A.J. Ewing connected on a home run that swung win probability by +42.1%, the single largest play of the game by a wide margin. Ronny Mauricio followed with a home run of his own off Irvin, adding another +11.4% swing, and a Carson Benge single contributed an additional +6.4% to the Mets' win probability in the same frame. Washington's lone run came in the bottom of the third, when Abimelec Ortiz delivered a sacrifice fly off Jonah Tong for a +5.9% WPA boost, though that lead proved short-lived. A Brett Baty strikeout in the fourth registered as the game's most damaging play for New York, costing the Mets 7.0% in win probability at that moment.

By the DiamondIQ model's WPA accounting, Ewing finished as the game's most valuable offensive contributor at +37.8% with a RE24 of +2.7, while Mauricio added +8.9% and a RE24 of +2.4, and Benge contributed +9.4% on the pitching side. On the mound, Jonah Tong led Mets pitchers with +11.1% WPA, followed by Connelly Early at +7.6% and Nate Lavender at +6.3%, a trio that held Washington's lineup to three hits and kept the Nationals from mounting any meaningful threat after the third inning.