MLB Recap · September 25, 2026

Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap

CLE12
Final
KC9

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CLE2101300051291
KC1202000229141

The Story

The Cleveland Guardians rallied past the Kansas City Royals 12-9 at Kauffman Stadium on September 25, 2026, in a game that swung dramatically over its final two innings. Cleveland carried a 7-7 deficit into the eighth before Kansas City appeared to seize control. Carter Jensen delivered the decisive blow of the night, a home run off Hunter Gaddis in the bottom of the eighth that swung win probability by +38.8 percentage points and briefly gave the Royals a 9-7 lead. However, the rally was blunted almost immediately when John Rave grounded into a double play, also off Gaddis, costing Kansas City 17.8 percentage points of win probability and stranding any further momentum. Cleveland then erupted for five runs in the top of the ninth, with José Ramírez drawing a pivotal walk off Nate Pearson that added 32.0 percentage points to the Guardians' chances, pushing Cleveland ahead for good. A forceout by Steven Kwan in that same inning cost Cleveland 18.2 percentage points, but the Guardians ultimately pushed the lead to 12-9 and held on from there.

Jensen finished as the night's most impactful individual performer by a wide margin, posting a +53.2% WPA and +3.5 RE24, though his contributions came entirely on behalf of Kansas City and ultimately fell short. Ramírez was the top performer for Cleveland, finishing at +32.6% WPA and +1.0 RE24, his ninth-inning walk serving as the turning point that the DiamondIQ model identified as the single biggest positive swing for the Guardians on the night. David Fry also contributed meaningfully, his fifth-inning home run off Noah Cameron adding 19.9 percentage points to Cleveland's win probability and helping the Guardians build an early edge. On the mound, Erik Sabrowski led Cleveland's relievers with +8.8% WPA, followed closely by Connor Thomas at +8.6% and Daniel Espino at +7.5%, a collective bullpen effort that preserved the lead once the ninth-inning offense established it. The DiamondIQ model had set Kansas City's pre-game home win probability at 44%, a figure that fell all the way to zero by the final out.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CLE bats firstFinalKC win %CLE win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 44% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Carter Jensen — Home Run
Bot 8th · off Hunter Gaddis
+38.8%
Top 9th · off Nate Pearson
+32.0%
David Fry — Home Run
Top 5th · off Noah Cameron
+19.9%
Steven Kwan — Forceout
Top 9th · off Nate Pearson
-18.2%
John Rave — Double Play
Bot 8th · off Hunter Gaddis
-17.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Carter Jensen+53.2%+3.5 RE24
José Ramírez+32.6%+1.0 RE24
Brayan Rocchio+15.4%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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