Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox held off the Chicago Cubs 4-3 at Fenway Park on September 25, 2026, in a game the DiamondIQ model opened with a 53 percent home win probability and closed at 100 percent in Boston's favor. The Cubs grabbed an early advantage by scoring in each of the first two innings, staking themselves to a 3-0 lead through two frames, but Boston chipped away beginning in the third and seized full control with a two-run fifth inning that proved to be the turning point of the contest.

The decisive sequence arrived in the bottom of the fifth, when Adley Rutschman delivered a single off Caleb Thielbar that shifted win probability 14.5 points in Boston's direction, then Roman Anthony followed with a double off Clay Holmes worth another 13.5 points, providing the Red Sox the lead they would not relinquish. Anthony extended Boston's cushion further in the seventh with a triple off Aaron Civale that swung win probability an additional 11.6 points Boston's way. The Cubs mounted their final realistic threat in the top of the seventh, but Nico Hoerner's flyout off Greg Weissert cost Chicago 12.3 points of win probability and Alex Bregman's strikeout against the same pitcher erased another 11.3, effectively closing the door on a Chicago rally.

Anthony was the game's most impactful offensive player, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-30.7 and an RE24 of plus-2.8 across his double and triple. Rutschman and Connor Wong also contributed positively, posting WPA figures of plus-12.2 and plus-10.1 respectively. On the pitching side, Raymond Burgos led all pitchers with a plus-25.9 WPA, followed by starter Jake Bennett at plus-15.3 and Weissert at plus-11.7, as Boston's bullpen proved sturdy enough to preserve a one-run margin against a Cubs offense that finished with seven hits but committed one error in a losing effort.