Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins shut out the Atlanta Braves 3-0 at loanDepot park on September 25, 2026, holding them to just one hit across nine innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Miami holding a 45 percent pre-game win probability, a figure that climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent by game's end. The contest was scoreless through six frames, a stretch defined as much by missed opportunity as by dominant pitching, with Drake Baldwin's sixth-inning double play off Eury Pérez costing Atlanta 10.6 percent in win probability and Agustín Ramírez's groundout in the bottom half wiping 13.9 percent from Miami's ledger.

The game's decisive moment arrived in the bottom of the seventh when Joe Mack drove a home run off Grant Holmes, a swing worth 17.1 percent in win probability and the blow that finally broke the deadlock. Mack finished as the game's top offensive performer by a wide margin, accumulating a 20.8 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.2. Miami extended its lead in the eighth when Jakob Marsee laced a triple off Didier Fuentes, adding another 10.4 percent to the Marlins' probability and setting the table for further insurance runs. Griffin Conine contributed throughout, finishing with 12.7 percent WPA on the strength of a key sixth-inning single off Holmes among other contributions.

Eury Pérez was the central figure of the evening, posting a staggering 53.2 percent WPA as he neutralized Atlanta's lineup with the Braves managing just one hit against Miami's collective pitching staff. Grant Holmes added 8.7 percent WPA in relief and Ray Kerr contributed 7.6 percent as Miami's bullpen held firm. Atlanta generated almost nothing offensively, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected that collapse in real time, swinging decisively toward the Marlins as the night wore on.