Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 6-4 at Yankee Stadium on September 24, 2026, completing a game that began as a near coin-flip — the DiamondIQ model's estimate opened at 51 percent in favor of the home side — but closed with the model at 100 percent New York. The Rays drew first blood in the third inning on a Junior Caminero single off Cam Schlittler that swung win probability 12.2 percent in Tampa Bay's favor, and the visitors extended their lead to 4-1 through six innings, keeping the Yankees at arm's length into the middle stages of the game.

New York's rally began in earnest in the seventh, where an Anthony Volpe walk off Brody Hopkins proved to be the pivot point of the inning, shifting win probability 20.7 percent toward the Yankees. The home side scored three runs that frame to tie the game, and then George Lombard Jr. delivered the decisive blow in the bottom of the eighth, depositing a home run off Steven Matz that swung win probability a game-high 35.6 percent in New York's favor. Tampa Bay mounted a brief response in the top half of that inning — Taylor Walls doubled off Bradley Hanner for an 11.2 percent swing — but Liam Hicks grounded into a fielder's choice out that erased 12.5 percent of the Rays' remaining equity and effectively ended their threat.

Lombard Jr. led all position players with a 38.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.2, while Volpe contributed 20.3 percent WPA and Goldschmidt added 14.3 percent. On the pitching side, Ian Seymour was the model's top-rated arm with 22.4 percent WPA, and Bradley Hanner supported the win with 16.8 percent WPA despite allowing the Walls double. The Yankees finished with seven hits and committed two errors, while Tampa Bay collected nine hits against one error in a losing effort.