San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres handed the Los Angeles Dodgers a 5-1 defeat at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on September 23, 2026, a result that looked unlikely given the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 60 percent home win probability for Los Angeles. The Padres did their decisive work against Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the middle innings, with Manny Machado delivering the game's single most impactful blow in the top of the fourth — a home run that shifted win probability 17.5 percentage points in San Diego's favor. The Dodgers briefly responded in the bottom half when Andy Pages singled to add 9.8 percentage points back for Los Angeles, but Shohei Ohtani's strikeout against David Morgan immediately swung the model 9.4 points the other way, erasing much of that momentum. San Diego extended its advantage in the fifth when Dustin Harris reached on a fielder's choice off Yamamoto, a play worth 15.2 percentage points, and any hope of a Dodger rally dissolved in the bottom of that frame when Freddie Freeman grounded into a double play against Yuki Matsui, a swing of negative 9.2 percentage points for the home side.

The individual performance numbers reinforced how thoroughly San Diego controlled the game once the scoring began. Andy Pages led all position players with a WPA of plus 19.3 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.4 despite playing for the losing team, a reflection of how his fourth-inning single briefly kept Los Angeles competitive. On the San Diego side, Dustin Harris posted a WPA of plus 18.8 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.2, while Machado checked in at plus 13.9 percent despite a slightly negative RE24 of minus 0.3. The Padres bullpen was equally effective at holding the lead, with Bradgley Rodriguez producing the highest pitcher WPA of the night at plus 12.3 percent, followed by Matsui at plus 5.6 percent and Adrian Morejon at plus 5.2 percent. Los Angeles finished with ten hits to San Diego's eight but committed an error and could not convert their baserunners into runs against a Padres pitching staff that the DiamondIQ model's final probability of zero percent reflects held firm from the fifth inning on.