Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the Chicago Cubs 3-2 at Wrigley Field on September 23, 2026, handing Chicago a loss the DiamondIQ model had pegged as highly unlikely entering the game, with a pre-game home win probability of 60% that fell to 0% by the final out. The game was scoreless through five innings before both teams exchanged runs in the sixth, and Miami's ability to protect a slim lead through a tense final frame ultimately proved decisive.

The decisive blow came in the top of the sixth, when Kyle Stowers connected on a home run off Kevin Gausman, a swing that shifted win probability by 23.5 percentage points in Miami's favor and stood as the single most impactful play of the contest. Chicago answered immediately in the bottom half, as Dansby Swanson singled off Michael Petersen to close the gap and generate a 21.7-point swing back toward the Cubs. Miami pushed an additional run across in the seventh to take a 3-2 lead, and the Cubs' best chance to respond came undone in the ninth when Carson Kelly grounded into a double play off Sandy Alcantara, a sequence that swung win probability 16.3 points toward Miami and effectively ended Chicago's threat. A Pedro Ramirez single earlier in that same inning had briefly raised Cubs hopes by 12.3 points, but it went for naught.

Stowers finished as the top offensive performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a WPA of plus 17.6% and a RE24 of plus 1.1, while Swanson contributed a WPA of plus 7.9% and a matching RE24 of plus 1.1 despite being on the losing side. On the pitching front, Calvin Faucher led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 23.3%, doing critical work in the late innings to strand Chicago runners, with Ryan Gusto adding plus 14.0% and Jacob Webb contributing plus 12.2% as Miami's bullpen collectively preserved the one-run advantage through the final outs.