Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks held off a late Colorado rally to win 5-3 at Coors Field on September 23, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate entering the game at a 37 percent home win probability for the Rockies ultimately falling to zero. Arizona struck early and decisively, plating four runs in the first inning to build a lead that proved durable through seven frames before both offenses came alive in the eighth. Merrill Kelly led all pitchers in win-probability contribution at plus-15.7 percent, while Mason Adams and Justin Martinez added plus-8.2 and plus-8.0 percent respectively in support of the back-end relief effort.

The eighth inning contained the game's most pivotal sequence. Tim Tawa opened the top half with a home run off Mark Manfredi that added 9.4 percentage points of win probability for Arizona, pushing the cushion to what would become a 5-2 advantage. Colorado answered immediately in the bottom half when Ezequiel Tovar launched a solo home run off Brandyn Garcia, a swing worth plus-12.0 percent for the Rockies that made it a two-run game. However, TJ Rumfield's pop out to Juan Morillo in that same inning erased 7.4 percentage points from Colorado's window, effectively blunting the rally before it could fully materialize.

The ninth inning saw Colorado put runners on base via a Troy Johnston walk and a Kyle Karros single off Jonathan Loaisiga, each worth plus-7.8 percent in win probability, but the Rockies could not convert, and Arizona secured the 5-3 final. Tovar finished as the game's top positional contributor at plus-18.9 percent WPA and plus-0.7 RE24, his two-out home run representing the lone moment when the DiamondIQ model's estimate genuinely tightened for the Diamondbacks down the stretch.