Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| AZ | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
The Story
The Miami Marlins held on to defeat the Arizona Diamondbacks 4-3 at Chase Field on September 16, 2026, ending a game the DiamondIQ model had opened with a 57 percent pre-game win probability favoring the home side. Miami built its margin early, with Jakob Marsee delivering the decisive blow in the top of the third inning — a home run off Merrill Kelly that carried a win-probability swing of plus-16.7 percent in the Marlins' favor. The Diamondbacks chipped away throughout, pulling within one on Nolan Arenado's eighth-inning home run off Jack Ralston, a swing worth plus-17.3 percent for Arizona and the single largest positive batting play of the night for the home club. That made it a genuine one-run game heading into the final frame, but Arizona could not close the gap.
The game's most pivotal moment came in the bottom of the ninth when Ketel Marte was caught stealing second base off Sandy Alcantara, a sequence the DiamondIQ model registered as a plus-27.0 percent swing in Miami's favor and the highest-leverage single event of the contest. That baserunning failure effectively ended Arizona's last realistic path to a tying run. Earlier, Pavin Smith had grounded into a double play in the sixth off Cade Gibson, costing the Diamondbacks minus-11.8 percent in win probability, while Jose Fernandez struck out in the eighth against Ralston for another minus-12.9 percent blow to Arizona's chances.
On the individual ledger, Marte led all position players with a plus-19.7 percent WPA despite the costly caught stealing, a reflection of his contributions elsewhere in the game. Marsee finished second at plus-19.0 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.4, confirming his third-inning blast as the most run-context-impactful offensive play of the night. Arenado posted plus-15.3 percent WPA on the strength of his homer. Among pitchers, Cade Gibson led the way at plus-14.5 percent WPA, followed by Ralston at plus-13.3 percent — both instrumental in limiting Arizona's late opportunities — while Dennis Santana contributed plus-7.7 percent. Miami finished with a clean fielding line at 0 errors against Arizona's 1, and the final box showed an even 10 hits per side, making execution in leverage situations the clear separator in a tight ballgame.