Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the New York Mets 7-5 in eleven innings at Citi Field on September 15, 2026, completing a comeback that erased what had been a 51 percent pre-game home win probability for New York down to zero. The Mets carried a lead into the late innings and appeared positioned to close things out, but the game unraveled across three extra frames in dramatic fashion. Pete Alonso's ninth-inning home run off Kodai Senga was the first major inflection point, a swing the DiamondIQ model estimated added 35.7 percent in win probability for Baltimore and kept the Orioles alive heading to extras. The tenth inning saw further volatility, with Gunnar Henderson's single off Daniel Duarte shifting the win probability 32.0 percent toward Baltimore before Marcus Semien answered with a double off Alex Hoppe worth 26.9 percent in the other direction, and a Jared Young groundout added another 23.7 percent for New York, keeping the game knotted.

The decisive blow came in the top of the eleventh, when Coby Mayo deposited a pitch from Jonathan Pintaro over the fence for a home run that the DiamondIQ model assessed as a 66.5 percent swing in win probability, the single largest play of the game. That three-run inning gave Baltimore a 7-5 cushion that held, and Mayo finished as the game's most impactful offensive player with a plus-64.1 percent WPA and plus-2.9 RE24. Henderson and Semien also posted significant marks at plus-29.7 and plus-29.9 percent WPA respectively, reflecting how much of the game's outcome ran through the middle of the lineup for both clubs. On the pitching side, Nate Lavender led Baltimore's staff with plus-15.2 percent WPA, while Sean Manaea contributed plus-12.8 percent before the Mets' bullpen was ultimately unable to strand the late damage. Baltimore collected eight hits against New York's twelve, but the extra-inning sequence proved decisive in a game the home side had been marginally favored to win from the outset.