Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Detroit Tigers rallied past the Toronto Blue Jays 6-5 at Rogers Centre on September 14, 2026, overcoming a 2-0 deficit to claim a road victory in a game that swung dramatically in the final three innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with Toronto holding a 56% pre-game win probability, but that edge evaporated completely by the final out.

The decisive sequence began in the seventh inning, when Max Clark delivered a double off José Soriano that shifted win probability 25.4 points in Detroit's favor, helping fuel a four-run Tigers frame that turned a quiet game into a lead. Toronto answered with three runs of their own in the bottom half, headlined by Kazuma Okamoto's home run off Kyle Finnegan — the single largest swing of the night at 48.1 percentage points — briefly restoring hope for the Blue Jays. Detroit responded with a Brett Callahan single off Louis Varland in the eighth worth 18.3 points of win probability, and then the game's second-largest swing arrived in the ninth, when a field error on Hao-Yu Lee's at-bat off Varland added 34.2 points to Detroit's chances. Alejandro Kirk's groundout into a double play off Kenley Jansen in the bottom of the ninth, swinging 16.3 points back toward Detroit, ended Toronto's final threat.

Okamoto led all batters in WPA at plus 46.2 with a RE24 of plus 1.7, while Hao-Yu Lee posted plus 28.1 WPA and George Springer contributed plus 21.1 WPA alongside a RE24 of plus 1.6. On the pitching side, Beau Brieske paced Detroit's staff with plus 11.2 WPA, followed closely by Tyler Kinley at plus 10.9. Detroit's nine hits and zero errors against Toronto's eight hits and one error proved to be the difference in a game the DiamondIQ model ultimately assigned zero closing probability to the Blue Jays.