Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks walked off the Miami Marlins 8-7 on September 14, 2026, at Chase Field in a game that swung dramatically across nine innings before Corbin Carroll delivered the decisive blow. The DiamondIQ model opened with Arizona as a 58% favorite and closed at 100% certainty after Carroll's walk-off home run off Jack Ralston in the bottom of the ninth, a swing worth +71.5% in win probability and the single most impactful play of the contest.

The path to that moment was anything but straightforward. Miami grabbed a 3-0 lead in the second inning before Arizona responded with three runs of its own in the third, highlighted by Lars Nootbaar's home run off Sandy Alcantara that added +18.2% to the Diamondbacks' win probability. The Marlins pushed ahead again with two runs in the fourth, and Kyle Stowers extended the lead with a seventh-inning double off Kevin Ginkel worth +15.0% in win probability, putting Miami up 7-5 entering the eighth. Arizona clawed back in the bottom half when Jordan Lawlar connected for a home run off Tyler Zuber, a +23.9% swing that trimmed the deficit to one, though Ketel Marte's pop out in that same frame cost the home side 12.9% in win probability and prolonged the tension heading to the ninth.

Carroll finished as the game's most valuable performer at +69.0% WPA and +1.3 RE24, while Lawlar contributed +25.4% WPA and led all players with a +2.0 RE24. Gabriel Moreno rounded out the top offensive contributors at +23.2% WPA. On the pitching side, Calvin Faucher led Arizona's relievers at +7.9% WPA, followed by Jonathan Loaisiga at +7.0% and Michael Petersen at +6.3%, a trio that helped hold the Marlins in place long enough for Carroll to end it. Arizona's two errors from Miami compared to none for the Diamondbacks proved immaterial in the final tally.