Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-3 at Wrigley Field on September 12, 2026, in a game that shifted dramatically across two pivotal half-innings. The DiamondIQ model entered with a 60 percent home win probability and closed at 100 percent, but the path there was anything but straightforward. Pittsburgh seized the momentum in the top of the sixth when Ryan O'Hearn connected on a home run off Clay Holmes, a swing that added 28.5 percent to the Pirates' win probability and represented the single most impactful play of the game. Chicago had taken a 1-0 lead after the first and extended it to 2-0 through three innings, but O'Hearn's three-run blast off Holmes flipped the scoreboard 3-2 in Pittsburgh's favor and stood as the defining blow of the middle frames.

Chicago answered with a bottom of the eighth that unraveled Pittsburgh's lead entirely. Gregory Soto entered and could not find command, surrendering a walk to Matt Shaw that added 18.7 percent win probability, a hit by pitch to Nico Hoerner worth 15.8 percent, and a two-run double from Pedro Ramírez that contributed another 13.4 percent and completed the decisive 4-3 Cubs rally. The Pirates' best chance to respond came in the sixth when Michael Busch grounded into a double play off Paul Skenes, a sequence that cost Chicago 11.9 percent win probability but ultimately went unavenged.

Among individual performers, O'Hearn led all batters with a 22.5 percent WPA and 1.5 RE24 despite ending up on the losing side, while Ramírez posted 21.3 percent WPA and 1.4 RE24 as the architect of Chicago's comeback. Shaw contributed 18.7 percent WPA anchoring the eighth-inning rally. On the mound, Paul Skenes led all pitchers with 20.6 percent WPA, and Ryan Rolison and Jacob Webb added 15.8 and 15.1 percent respectively, with the Cubs' bullpen ultimately preserving the one-run victory after the lineup did the heavy lifting.