Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| MIA | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 4 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Miami Marlins defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-3 on September 12, 2026, at loanDepot park, handing Los Angeles a loss despite entering with the DiamondIQ model's estimate giving the home side just a 42 percent chance of winning before first pitch. Miami's offense struck early and decisively in the second inning, and the Marlins' bullpen held on to push that probability to 100 percent by the final out.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the second, when Graham Pauley launched a home run off Tyler Glasnow that shifted Miami's win probability by plus 12.1 percent, the single largest swing of the game. An Otto Lopez single in the same frame added another plus 7.2 percent, and Lopez finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer with a cumulative WPA of plus 14.6 and an RE24 of plus 1.9. Pauley contributed plus 11.1 percent WPA and a 1.5 RE24, while Jakob Marsee, who was hit by a pitch in the fifth off Jack Dreyer for a plus 5.6 percent swing, ended the night at plus 9.4 percent WPA. Miami added a run in the fifth to extend the lead to four, and a Los Angeles rally attempt in the ninth fell short when Will Smith lined out to Pete Fairbanks, a play that drained 6.8 percent from the Dodgers' dwindling chances.
On the mound, Miami's relievers were the backbone of the win. Cade Gibson led all pitchers with plus 9.1 percent WPA, followed by Michael Petersen at plus 8.1 percent and Calvin Faucher at plus 7.2 percent. The Marlins finished with seven hits and committed no errors, while Los Angeles managed just four hits and was hurt by one error in a performance that the DiamondIQ model ultimately reflected as a comprehensive Miami victory.