Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs rolled past the Pittsburgh Pirates 12-2 at Wrigley Field on September 11, 2026, turning what began as a competitive game into a comfortable home victory. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Chicago holding a 59% win probability before first pitch and closed at 100% as the Cubs built an insurmountable lead through the middle innings. Pittsburgh scratched across a run in the top of the first, but Chicago's offense answered emphatically and never looked back, posting crooked numbers in the second, third, and fourth frames to put the game away early.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the second inning, when Carson Kelly delivered the biggest swing of the game with a double off Pirates starter Wilber Dotel that shifted win probability by plus-13.4 percentage points. Nico Hoerner followed with a single in the same frame, adding another plus-6.1 points. The Cubs pushed further in the third against reliever Khristian Curtis, with Michael Busch contributing a plus-5.4-point double and Hoerner adding a forceout that moved the needle another plus-5.0 points. The only meaningful Pittsburgh moment came in the top of the first, when a Busch groundout represented a minus-5.0-point swing that briefly kept the Pirates alive, though Chicago erased any doubt quickly thereafter.

Carson Kelly headlined the individual performances, finishing with a cumulative WPA of plus-14.3% and a RE24 of plus-2.7, making him the clear catalyst of the Cubs' offensive outburst. Hoerner was equally consequential throughout the lineup card, posting a plus-11.1% WPA and plus-1.3 RE24 across multiple impactful plate appearances. Seiya Suzuki added plus-5.8% WPA and a plus-1.3 RE24 to round out Chicago's top contributors. On the mound, Shota Imanaga led Chicago's pitching staff with a plus-3.7% WPA, anchoring a performance that held Pittsburgh to seven hits and one error while the Cubs' defense played flawlessly.