Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 1 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The Baltimore Orioles handed the Toronto Blue Jays a 7-4 defeat at Rogers Centre on September 11, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Toronto win falling from 55 percent before first pitch all the way to zero by the final out. Baltimore did most of its damage early, plating one run in the first inning and then erupting for five in the second to effectively settle the outcome before the game reached the midpoint. Toronto managed single runs in the fourth and sixth innings and added two more in the ninth, but the deficit proved insurmountable against an Orioles staff that controlled the game from the opening frame.
The decisive swing came in the bottom of the second, when Andrés Giménez lined out in a spot that cost Toronto 12.6 percentage points of win probability, snuffing out what could have been a momentum-shifting sequence against Chris Bassitt. In the same inning from Baltimore's side, Coby Mayo's lineout carried a positive win-probability addition of 11.5 percent for the Orioles, reflecting the run-scoring context already unfolding in that frame. The Blue Jays got their lone meaningful threat of the middle innings when Kazuma Okamoto doubled off Bassitt in the sixth, a hit worth plus-8.6 percent in win probability, but Charles McAdoo's strikeout to end that sequence erased the threat, costing Toronto 5.4 points. Alejandro Kirk's forceout in the ninth added 5.7 percent for Toronto but came far too late to matter.
Mayo was Baltimore's top individual performer, finishing with plus-17.1 percent in combined WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.4. Okamoto led Toronto's position players with plus-11.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.8, while Kirk posted plus-4.9 percent WPA despite a RE24 of minus-1.1. On the mound, Bassitt and Josh Walker paced Baltimore's pitching staff, each contributing roughly 11.4 to 11.5 percent in WPA, with Yennier Cano adding a modest plus-0.7 in support. Baltimore finished with 11 hits against Toronto's 10, committing one error to Toronto's none, but the Orioles' ability to concentrate their offense in a single devastating inning made the difference.