New York Mets at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets survived a wild back-and-forth affair at loanDepot park on September 9, 2026, outlasting the Miami Marlins 15-14 in a game that featured nine combined runs in the seventh inning alone and a late Miami threat that ultimately fell short. The DiamondIQ model opened with Miami as a 56% favorite, but by the final out that estimate had collapsed to zero as the Mets constructed a lead large enough to withstand a furious Marlins rally in the bottom of the ninth. New York scored in bursts, putting up six runs in the second, two more in the third, and a decisive six-run seventh inning that proved to be the critical separation. Miami answered in the fourth, sixth, and ninth but could never fully close the gap.

The most consequential sequence of the game came in the bottom of the sixth, when the Marlins mounted a five-run rally off Daniel Duarte that dramatically shifted the win-probability landscape. Jakob Marsee's single in that frame added 15.7 percentage points to Miami's win probability, and Otto Lopez's walk contributed another 15.4 points, making those two at-bats the second and third most impactful plays of the entire game by WPA. In the top of the seventh, Christopher Morel's single off Tyler Zuber swung 15.0 percentage points back toward New York, helping fuel the six-run frame that ultimately decided the outcome. The game's single largest win-probability swing, however, came on Graham Pauley's pop out in the bottom of the ninth against Tobias Myers, a 21.4-point positive swing for the Mets that effectively sealed Miami's fate, with Owen Caissie's strikeout in the same inning costing the Marlins 13.1 percentage points of remaining hope.

Otto Lopez led all position players with a WPA of plus-27.3 and a RE24 of plus-3.5, the strongest combined performance of any batter on either side. Marsee finished at plus-21.1 WPA and plus-1.4 RE24, while Jared Young contributed plus-20.3 WPA despite a modest plus-0.6 RE24, suggesting his value came in high-leverage moments rather than run-creation volume. On the pitching side, Robert Stock was the most valuable arm by WPA at plus-13.2, ahead of Austin Warren at plus-2.8 and Michael Petersen at plus-1.0. The Mets finished with 15 hits and no errors, while Miami stranded significant opportunities despite generating 20 hits across the contest.