Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 2 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | - | 11 | 12 | 2 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Houston Astros 11-7 on September 9, 2026, at Citizens Bank Park in a game that shifted decisively in Philadelphia's favor through a pair of chaotic multi-run innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest giving the Phillies a 59% win probability, and that figure climbed to 100% by the final out after the home team overcame an early deficit and pulled away with a dominant sixth inning.
The third inning was the game's fulcrum, with both teams exchanging four runs. Houston's Isaac Paredes delivered the biggest blow for the visitors, a home run off Cristopher Sánchez that added 17.4 percentage points of win probability and represented the high-water mark of the Astros' offensive effort. Cam Smith followed with another home run off Sánchez in the fourth, a swing worth 14.8 points of win probability that briefly kept Houston competitive. Philadelphia answered in the third through Bryce Harper, whose single off Hunter Brown swung win probability 19.7 points in the Phillies' direction, and Luis Arraez added a single of his own that moved the needle another 13.9 points. When the sixth inning arrived, Kyle Schwarber's home run off AJ Blubaugh, worth 18.0 points of win probability, effectively closed the door, capping a six-run frame that gave Philadelphia command it would not relinquish.
Among the individual performances measured by the DiamondIQ model, Luis Arraez led all batters with a WPA of plus-20.6 and an RE24 of plus-1.6, while Paredes paced Houston at plus-18.7 WPA and plus-1.9 RE24 despite ending up on the losing side. Smith contributed plus-16.7 WPA for the Astros. On the mound, Philadelphia's Alex McFarlane posted the strongest pitching WPA at plus-1.9, with Tatsuya Imai and Jhoan Duran adding modest positive contributions in support. Both teams finished with 12 hits and committed two errors each, but Philadelphia's ability to concentrate damage in the third and sixth innings proved the determining factor.