Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Miami Marlins 6-5 at loanDepot park on September 5, 2026, completing a comeback that left the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 47 percent home win probability at exactly zero by the final out. Chicago built its advantage largely in the third inning, when Ian Happ delivered a single off Ryan Gusto that carried a 13.7 percent win-probability swing and helped the Cubs plate three runs in the frame. The Cubs added a run in each of the fourth, fifth, and sixth innings, while Miami answered with two in the fourth, two in the fifth, and one in the seventh to keep the game tight throughout.

The decisive sequence came in the late innings, where win-probability swings told the story of a taut finish. Kyle Stowers gave Miami life in the bottom of the seventh with a home run off Trent Thornton worth 15.6 percent in win probability, and Griffin Conine had earlier closed the gap with a two-run shot off Caleb Thielbar in the fifth that shifted the odds 20.6 percent in the Marlins' favor. Miami's best chance to complete the comeback effectively ended in the bottom of the eighth, when Javier Sanoja grounded out against Ryan Zeferjahn in a spot that cost the Marlins 19.9 percent in win probability. Zeferjahn then induced a flyout from Otto Lopez in the ninth to close the door, a play that paradoxically registered plus-27.0 percent for the Cubs' side as Miami's window slammed shut.

Among individual performers, Otto Lopez led all players with a combined WPA of plus-42.0 percent despite his final at-bat ending the game against his team, reflecting his overall contributions across the night. Griffin Conine posted a WPA of plus-24.1 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.5, making him Miami's most impactful offensive player. On the pitching side, Dax Fulton led Cubs arms with plus-11.6 percent WPA, followed by Zeferjahn at plus-10.5 percent, the latter proving critical in preserving Chicago's one-run margin through the final two innings.