San Francisco Giants at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the San Francisco Giants 10-6 at Citi Field on September 4, 2026, a game that was largely decided before the halfway point. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with a 59 percent pre-game probability favoring the Mets and climbed steadily to 100 percent by the final out, reflecting how thoroughly New York controlled the contest after building a seven-run cushion through the first two innings.

The game's most impactful sequence came in the bottom of the first and second innings, when the Mets buried Giants starter Matt Wilkinson early. Mark Vientos hit a home run off Wilkinson in the first to open the scoring, a swing worth plus-5.1 percent in win probability, then added a lineout in the second that registered the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus-9.5 percent as New York pushed across four more runs in that frame. The Giants mounted some resistance in the third, where Rafael Devers notched a double off Nolan McLean worth plus-6.0 percent, and San Francisco added three more in the eighth to make the final score more presentable, but New York added insurance runs in the sixth to keep the outcome beyond doubt. The most damaging moment for San Francisco was Drew Cavanaugh grounding into a double play in the fifth, a missed opportunity that cost the Giants 7.5 percent in win probability against McLean.

Individually, Vientos finished as the game's top offensive performer with a plus-14.4 percent WPA and plus-2.3 RE24, while Devers led all batters in run-environment impact at plus-5.0 RE24 to go with his plus-11.8 percent WPA despite being on the losing side. Francisco Alvarez added plus-6.2 percent WPA and plus-1.4 RE24 for New York. On the mound, Nolan McLean was the standout, posting a plus-10.3 percent WPA and generating two of the night's most consequential outs to preserve and extend the Mets' lead.