San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the San Diego Padres 5-4 in eleven innings on August 30, 2026, at Tropicana Field, rallying from a deficit twice to secure a walk-off victory. The DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate gave the Rays a 62 percent chance of winning, a figure that reached 100 percent by the time the final out was recorded. San Diego held a 4-3 lead entering the bottom of the ninth, and the game appeared in hand with closer Mason Miller on the mound, but Jonny DeLuca changed the equation with a single swing, depositing a home run off Miller to tie the game and swing win probability by 49.8 percent in Tampa Bay's favor — the most consequential play of the night.
The Padres responded in the top of the eleventh, manufacturing what looked like a go-ahead run when Ty France lifted a sacrifice fly off Tyler Wells to push San Diego back in front, a play worth 27.7 percent in win probability added. The inning might have been more damaging had Xander Bogaerts not struck out, a pivotal out that Wells generated for a 23.1 percent swing back toward the Rays. Tampa Bay then ended it in the bottom of the eleventh, as Liam Hicks singled off David Morgan to set the stage, adding 35.4 percent to the Rays' win probability, before a fielding error on DeLuca's ball allowed the winning run to score, shifting another 31.6 percent toward Tampa Bay.
DeLuca finished as the game's most impactful player by a significant margin, accumulating a combined WPA of plus-74.8 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.1, his ninth-inning home run and eleventh-inning error together serving as the two bookends of the victory. Bogaerts led Padres position players by WPA at plus-36.6, while Ty France contributed plus-32.0 despite the loss. On the mound, Robbie Ray was the Rays' most valuable arm by win probability, posting a plus-25.3 percent figure, with Adrian Morejon adding plus-13.3 percent in relief. San Diego finished with one error to Tampa Bay's two, and the Rays improved their position in a game that required extra frames to decide.