San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 1 |
| TB | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | - | 7 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
Tampa Bay edged San Diego 7-6 on August 29, 2026, at Tropicana Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 61% home win probability and finishing at 100% after a chaotic seventh inning settled the outcome. The game was scoreless through much of its early going before Ty France delivered the swing with the largest single win-probability impact of the night, a home run off Nick Martinez in the top of the sixth that shifted the odds 21.8 points in San Diego's favor and gave the Padres a temporary foothold. Junior Caminero answered immediately for Tampa Bay in the bottom half, his home run off Walker Buehler adding 14.8 points to the Rays' win probability and leveling the ledger heading into the seventh, where the game was ultimately decided.
The seventh inning proved decisive for both clubs. Manny Machado drove a single off Kevin Kelly in the top half, a hit worth plus-14.5 points of win probability that pushed San Diego ahead and capped a three-run frame for the Padres. Tampa Bay responded in the bottom of the seventh with a four-run rally that erased the deficit and secured the win. Chandler Simpson's single off Adrian Morejon was worth 18.8 points, but it was Yandy Díaz who delivered the game's most consequential blow, a single off Bradgley Rodriguez that carried the highest WPA of any play at plus-23.5 points and effectively closed the door on any San Diego comeback. The Rays scored four times in the inning, leaving the final score 7-6.
Machado finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-26.1% with a RE24 of plus-1.1, while France posted plus-22.1% WPA and the game's best RE24 mark at plus-2.4 despite ending up on the losing side. Caminero contributed plus-16.6% WPA for Tampa Bay. On the pitching side, Bryan Baker led all arms with plus-15.2% WPA, and Kyle Hart added plus-7.1%, while Yuki Matsui was the only pitcher to finish with a negative WPA figure at minus-4.5%, reflecting the damage absorbed during the Rays' decisive seventh-inning surge.