MLB Recap · August 26, 2026

Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

CIN10
Final
SF9

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CIN01100010710150
SF0200220309122

The Story

The Cincinnati Reds erased a deficit and stunned San Francisco with a seven-run ninth inning to take a 10-9 decision at Oracle Park on August 26, 2026, completing one of the more dramatic road comebacks of the season. The Giants had built a 9-3 lead entering the final frame, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cincinnati victory sat near zero as the ninth began, reflecting just how firmly San Francisco appeared to be in control.

The collapse unfolded entirely at the expense of Dylan Smith, who could not record an out in the ninth as the Reds sent a parade of hitters to the plate. Tyler Stephenson delivered the decisive blow, a single that swung win probability by 40.0 percentage points, the largest single-play shift of the game. Dane Myers added a single of his own worth 20.4 percentage points, and Matt McLain contributed another single at 17.6 points, with all three hits coming off Smith in the same catastrophic inning. For the game, Stephenson finished as Cincinnati's top performer by WPA at plus-40.0 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.3, while Myers posted plus-27.5 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.5. The Giants' defense was no help, finishing with two errors on the night against Cincinnati's clean zero.

San Francisco had reason for confidence through eight innings largely because of Rafael Devers, whose fifth-inning home run off Nick Lodolo registered an 18.6 percentage point swing and represented the Giants' most impactful offensive moment. Devers finished as the top Giant by WPA at plus-21.5 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.7. Logan Webb led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-11.8 percent, and Emilio Pagán did strand the tying run in the bottom of the ninth, generating plus-27.0 percent via Christian Koss's strikeout, but the damage in the top half had long since been done. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with San Francisco holding a 47 percent home win probability, a figure that reflected a genuinely competitive matchup before the ninth inning rendered it irrelevant.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CIN bats firstFinalSF win %CIN win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 47.5% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Tyler Stephenson — Single
Top 9th · off Dylan Smith
+40.0%
Christian Koss — Strikeout
Bot 9th · off Emilio Pagán
+27.0%
Dane Myers — Single
Top 9th · off Dylan Smith
+20.4%
Rafael Devers — Home Run
Bot 5th · off Nick Lodolo
+18.6%
Matt McLain — Single
Top 9th · off Dylan Smith
+17.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Tyler Stephenson+40.0%+1.3 RE24
Dane Myers+27.5%+1.5 RE24
Rafael Devers+21.5%+1.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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