Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox defeated the Miami Marlins 7-3 in extra innings on August 25, 2026, at loanDepot park, completing a comeback that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Boston win climb from a pre-game 49 percent road probability all the way to certainty. The game remained tight through nine innings, with the two clubs exchanging single runs in the fifth and sixth before deadlocking heading into extras. The decisive turning point came in the bottom of the tenth, when Javier Sanoja's strikeout against Wyatt Olds shifted win probability by 44.1 percent in Boston's favor, extinguishing Miami's automatic-runner opportunity and keeping the game level. Wilyer Abreu's strikeout and Nick Sogard's groundout earlier in the tenth, both off Calvin Faucher, had already added 23.1 and 16.4 percentage points respectively, as Boston methodically navigated the extra-inning threat.

The Red Sox then blew the game open in the top of the eleventh with a four-run frame against Cade Gibson. Jarren Duran's home run was the backbreaker, adding 40.7 percent to Boston's win probability in a single swing, followed immediately by Willson Contreras's RBI single that added another 32.0 percent and effectively closed the door on any Miami response. Among position players, Sanoja finished as the top WPA contributor at plus-41.1 percent despite his role coming on the wrong end of the box score, while Mickey Gasper posted the most impactful overall offensive line at plus-28.7 percent WPA and plus-2.8 RE24. Duran finished at plus-25.7 percent WPA with a plus-1.4 RE24. On the mound, Tyron Guerrero led Boston's relief corps with plus-15.7 percent WPA, followed by Josh Ekness at plus-13.5 percent and Greg Weissert at plus-10.9 percent, as the Boston bullpen held Miami to two runs over the final several innings to secure the road victory.