Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 4-1 on August 25, 2026, at T-Mobile Park, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a near coin-flip — a 47% pre-game home win probability — into a decisive outcome that closed at 100% in Seattle's favor. The game was largely a pitching duel through the early innings, with Cal Raleigh's home run off Aaron Nola in the second inning providing the first significant shift, adding 7.7% to Seattle's win probability and putting the Mariners on the board first. Philadelphia answered with a run of their own in the second, keeping the game level before Seattle began to pull away.

The decisive sequence came in the sixth and seventh innings. Josh Naylor's single off Nola in the bottom of the sixth pushed Seattle's advantage forward by 9.4%, then the seventh inning sealed the outcome. J.P. Crawford singled off Orion Kerkering for a 6.3% swing, and Dominic Canzone followed with a single off Brooks Raley that represented the game's single largest win-probability play at plus-17.3%, effectively ending Philadelphia's chances. Randy Arozarena's pop out in the same frame cut 7.0% from Seattle's mounting lead, though it did little to alter the game's direction. Canzone finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-13.6% with a RE24 of plus-1.3, while Raleigh also posted plus-1.3 RE24 alongside his 7.5% WPA contribution.

George Kirby was the dominant force on the mound, leading all pitchers with a remarkable plus-34.2% WPA, anchoring a performance that held Philadelphia to a single run on six hits without an error. Nola absorbed the loss despite finishing with a positive 4.4% WPA, a reflection of a competitive but ultimately losing effort. Andrés Muñoz added 2.4% in relief for Seattle. The DiamondIQ model's pre-game lean had the game essentially even, but Kirby's outing and the seventh-inning burst made this one decidedly a Mariners night.