Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| TB | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 7 | 8 | 1 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays held off the Toronto Blue Jays 7-6 at Tropicana Field on August 19, 2026, in a game that swung dramatically across the middle innings before the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Tampa Bay victory climbed from a pre-game 66 percent to a final 100 percent. The Rays struck first and hard, with Richie Palacios delivering a double off Max Scherzer in the bottom of the fourth that shifted win probability 12.5 points in Tampa Bay's favor as part of a five-run frame that gave the home side a commanding lead. Toronto answered emphatically in the top of the fifth, when Kazuma Okamoto's single off Drew Rasmussen moved the needle 10.8 points toward the visitors as the Blue Jays erupted for four runs to cut sharply into the deficit, then added another run in the sixth to pull within one.
The contest's decisive sequence came in the top of the sixth, when Charles McAdoo delivered a double off Kevin Kelly that swung win probability 13.0 points toward Toronto, the single largest swing of the game, as the Blue Jays attempted to erase the remaining gap entirely. However, the Blue Jays could not complete the comeback, and Bryan Baker closed out the ninth inning with authority. Alejandro Kirk's flyout to end a rally cost Toronto 10.9 points of win probability, and while a Charles McAdoo field error off Baker briefly added 10.6 points of hope for the Blue Jays, Baker ultimately secured the Rays' one-run victory, finishing as the top pitcher by WPA at plus 15.2 points.
McAdoo was the game's most impactful individual performer despite being on the losing side, finishing with a combined WPA of plus 27.4 and a RE24 of plus 2.3, driven by that sixth-inning double and his involvement in the ninth-inning sequence. Palacios contributed a plus 12.9 WPA and Okamoto added plus 11.1 WPA for their respective clubs. Tyler Wells also factored prominently on the Tampa Bay pitching side at plus 10.8 WPA. The final line of 7-6 reflected a game that was genuinely competitive through six innings before the Rays' bullpen, anchored by Baker, preserved what the DiamondIQ model had favored from the first pitch.