Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | - | 6 | 10 | 2 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Miami Marlins 6-4 at Citizens Bank Park on August 18, 2026, in a game that the DiamondIQ model had projected as a moderate home favorite at 58% pre-game win probability, a lean that proved well-founded as the final estimate reached 100%. Miami scratched out single runs in the second, fifth, and sixth innings to keep the contest alive into the middle stages, but a four-run Philadelphia sixth inning proved to be the decisive turn of the game, shifting the contest irreversibly in the Phillies' favor.
The sixth inning was where the game was effectively decided, and the DiamondIQ model's win-probability swings reflect exactly that. Justin Crawford opened the frame with a single off Tyler Phillips that added 11.9 percentage points to Philadelphia's win probability, setting the table for the damage to follow. Bryson Stott then delivered the highest-impact swing of the night, a single off Michael Petersen worth +21.8 points of win probability, followed quickly by Alec Bohm's double off the same pitcher, adding another 18.3 points. Combined, those two at-bats accounted for the largest consecutive probability swing of the contest. Miami did respond with a Heriberto Hernández single off Orion Kerkering in the top of the eighth, a play worth +12.5 points from the Marlins' perspective, and Kyle Schwarber answered right back with a run-scoring single off Calvin Faucher in the bottom half worth +13.0 points for Philadelphia, effectively sealing the outcome.
Stott finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's measures, posting a cumulative WPA of +22.7% and a RE24 of +1.7, while Bohm contributed +16.3% WPA and +1.6 RE24 to anchor the Philadelphia offensive effort. Hernández led Miami at +14.6% WPA and +0.9 RE24, though his contributions came too late to alter the result. On the mound, Josh Ekness, José Alvarado, and Tyler Zuber each contributed positive win-probability value for the Phillies out of the bullpen, posting figures of +7.7%, +7.2%, and +6.7% respectively, helping Philadelphia close out a game in which they surrendered ten hits but committed two errors without allowing the Marlins to capitalize decisively.