Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 1 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - | 6 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies held off the Miami Marlins 6-5 on August 17, 2026, at Citizens Bank Park in a game that tightened considerably before the home side ultimately secured the win. Philadelphia entered with the DiamondIQ model's estimate sitting at a 57 percent pre-game home win probability, but the path to victory was anything but straightforward, as Miami mounted repeated challenges before the model's final estimate reached 100 percent in favor of the Phillies.
The game's decisive swings were concentrated in the middle and late innings. Philadelphia built an early cushion with two runs in the third and two more in the sixth, the latter fueled by Derek Hill's single off John King, which added 12.1 percent to the Phillies' win probability. Miami responded with a pair of runs in the seventh, headlined by Javier Sanoja's double off Jonathan Bowlan that swung win probability 16.3 percent in the Marlins' favor, trimming the deficit and keeping Miami very much alive. Brian Navarreto then delivered the sharpest Miami blow of the night in the eighth, a home run off Brooks Raley worth 13.7 percent in win probability added, pulling the Marlins to within one. Philadelphia answered immediately in the bottom of the eighth when Alec Bohm singled off Cade Gibson, a hit worth 12.1 percent that helped the Phillies reassert control and ultimately held as the margin.
Derek Hill was the standout performer of the evening, finishing with 22.6 percent in win probability added and a RE24 of plus 2.0, driven by his productive sixth-inning single and a walk in the seventh off Victor Vodnik that added another 10.5 percent. Bryson Stott contributed 11.6 percent in win probability added, while Navarreto's 11.3 percent from Miami's side made him the Marlins' most impactful bat despite the loss. On the mound, Cristopher Sánchez led all pitchers with 13.1 percent in win probability added for Philadelphia, with Jhoan Duran and Orion Kerkering also contributing positively out of the bullpen to close out Miami's final threat in the ninth.