New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the New York Yankees 3-1 at Rogers Centre on August 14, 2026, in a game that remained scoreless through five innings before a decisive sixth-inning sequence shifted control firmly toward the home side. The DiamondIQ model entered the evening with a 47 percent home win probability for Toronto, a figure that climbed steadily as the Blue Jays built their advantage and ultimately reached 100 percent by the final out. New York finished with five hits and committed two errors, while Toronto collected eight hits and played errorless defense.

The pivotal sequence began in the top of the sixth, when Yankees outfielder Trent Grisham connected on a home run off Shane Bieber, a swing that added 13.7 percent to New York's win probability and gave the visitors a lead. Toronto answered immediately in the bottom half against Gerrit Cole. Alejandro Kirk delivered a double that swung win probability 11.9 percent in the Blue Jays' favor, and George Springer followed with a forceout that added another 9.9 percent, giving Toronto a 2-1 advantage and erasing the Grisham damage entirely. Kirk then sealed the outcome in the bottom of the eighth with a solo home run off Bradley Hanner, the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 14.9 percent, pushing the lead to 3-1.

Kirk was the clear offensive catalyst for Toronto, finishing with a combined WPA of plus 27.5 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.9, making him the game's most impactful player by those measures. On the pitching side, Shane Bieber led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 16.2 percent despite surrendering the Grisham home run, while Tyler Rogers contributed plus 13.7 percent in relief. The DiamondIQ model's lean throughout the second half of the game favored Toronto, a lean that the Blue Jays' bullpen and Kirk's timely hitting fully validated.