Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles outlasted the Tampa Bay Rays 6-5 at Tropicana Field on August 14, 2026, overcoming a late Tampa Bay push in the ninth inning to secure the road victory. The DiamondIQ model opened the night heavily favoring the Rays with a 66 percent home win probability, but that figure eroded steadily before reaching zero by the final out.

Baltimore built its margin in the middle and late innings, with the decisive swings coming from Gunnar Henderson and Colton Cowser. Cowser started the damage in the third inning, connecting on a home run off Jesse Scholtens that added 10.5 percentage points of win probability for the Orioles. The lead continued to grow in the seventh when Dylan Beavers singled off Kevin Kelly for an 11.4-point swing, and Henderson then put the game in a commanding position with a two-run shot off Chris Roycroft in the eighth that represented a 16.1-point swing, the single most decisive offensive play of the night. Henderson finished as the top performer by a wide margin, posting a combined WPA of plus-30.6 percent and a RE24 of plus-3.2 on the evening. Cowser contributed a WPA of plus-12.4 percent in support.

Tampa Bay made a final stand in the bottom of the ninth, scoring three runs to close within one and forcing a tense conclusion, but Ryan Vilade's flyout to end the game actually produced a WPA figure of plus-18.8 percent from Baltimore's perspective, reflecting just how precarious the situation had become before Cam Sanders recorded the final out and secured the win. On the pitching side, Chris Bassitt led Baltimore's staff with a WPA of plus-11.1 percent, followed by Andrew Kittredge at plus-8.8 and Josh Walker at plus-7.4 as the Orioles bullpen held on through the Rays' late charge.