Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates dismantled the Miami Marlins 13-1 at loanDepot park on August 13, 2026, turning what the DiamondIQ model had projected as a 57 percent pre-game home win probability for Miami into a complete runaway, with the model's estimate falling to zero percent by the final out. Pittsburgh broke the game open with a pair of pivotal fifth-inning moments against Tyler Phillips. Jared Triolo launched a home run that swung win probability 12.8 percent in Pittsburgh's favor, and Jake Mangum followed with a triple that added another 10.7 percent swing, the two plays combining to effectively end Miami's realistic path to victory. The Pirates plated two runs in the fifth, three more in the sixth, three in the eighth, and five in the ninth, finishing with 16 hits against a Marlins staff that surrendered nearly every meaningful moment of the contest.

Miami's offense offered little resistance and compounded its troubles with self-inflicted damage. Xavier Edwards grounded into a double play in the bottom of the fourth off Braxton Ashcraft, costing the Marlins 8.5 percent in win probability, and Agustín Ramírez did the same in the fifth, a swing of negative 10.4 percent that extinguished what little threat Miami could muster. Ashcraft was the dominant force on the mound, finishing with a WPA of plus 29.7 percent, by far the game's most impactful pitching performance. Triolo led all position players with a WPA of plus 19.1 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.5, while Mangum was equally central to the offensive effort at plus 16.7 percent WPA and plus 2.4 RE24, his hit by pitch in the sixth adding yet another 6.8 percent swing as Pittsburgh kept the pressure on. Griffin Conine also contributed positively at plus 3.5 percent WPA. The Pirates finished with one error against Miami's none, but the Marlins managed only three hits in what was a thorough and methodical victory for Pittsburgh.