Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| STL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - | 7 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 7-1 at Busch Stadium on August 12, 2026, in a game that was largely decided by a four-run fifth inning that pulled the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cardinals win from a near-even pregame probability of 52 percent all the way to certainty by the final out. Philadelphia scratched out their lone run in the fourth, but St. Louis answered with a decisive burst in the fifth and added two more in the seventh to put the game out of reach, finishing with a clean 7-1 margin on eight hits and no errors.
The pivot moment of the game came in the bottom of the fifth against Zack Wheeler, when Alec Burleson delivered a double that shifted win probability by 22.1 percentage points, the single largest swing of the contest. Iván Herrera followed with a single that added another 9.8 percentage points, compounding the damage from what became a four-run frame. Earlier in the top of the fourth, Bryce Harper had given Philadelphia a brief moment of optimism with a double off Kyle Leahy that swung win probability 7.0 points in the Phillies' direction, but Brandon Marsh's strikeout immediately gave back 6.7 points, and the Cardinals never surrendered the lead. Luis Arraez's grounded double play in the sixth, costing the Phillies 6.1 percentage points, further extinguished any remaining Philadelphia rally hopes.
Burleson was the game's dominant individual performer, finishing with a cumulative WPA of plus-27.4 and an RE24 of plus-3.5, numbers that reflect his central role in the Cardinals' offensive outburst. On the mound, Kyle Leahy was the Cardinals' most valuable arm by WPA, contributing plus-10.0 percentage points by limiting the Phillies through critical stretches, with Justin Bruihl adding another plus-4.9. Harper led Philadelphia's offensive contributors with a WPA of plus-10.0 and an RE24 of plus-1.3, though his efforts were ultimately insufficient against a Cardinals lineup that controlled the game from the middle innings forward.