Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 2 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies held off the St. Louis Cardinals 6-5 at Busch Stadium on August 10, 2026, surviving a tense late-game surge from St. Louis to escape with the road win. The DiamondIQ model opened the night with an even 50 percent home win probability for the Cardinals, but by the final out that figure had fallen to zero, reflecting how completely Philadelphia controlled the outcome despite a serious challenge in the eighth inning.
The eighth was the game's most volatile stretch. Alan Rangel entered for the Phillies and promptly saw the Cardinals claw back into contention, with Masyn Winn delivering a double that shifted win probability 21.4 percent in St. Louis's favor, followed by a Jordan Walker single worth another 19.9 percent swing. Those two hits were part of a three-run Cardinals eighth that made it a one-run game. But Bryan Torres's lineout against Rangel in that same inning swung momentum back toward Philadelphia by 25.8 percent, effectively stalling the rally at a critical moment. Kyle Schwarber had provided crucial insurance before that chaos arrived, lacing a double off Caleb Ferguson in the top of the seventh that added 15.0 percent to Philadelphia's win probability and represented a two-run swing in run expectancy.
The Cardinals' bid to tie or take the lead in the ninth ended when Alec Burleson lined out against Jonathan Bowlan, a play that carried a 31.6 percent win-probability swing and sealed the game. Burleson was nonetheless the top WPA performer on the night at plus-45.5 percent and plus-1.4 RE24, driven by his contributions earlier in the game before that final at-bat ended St. Louis's hopes. Schwarber led Philadelphia's individual contributors with plus-20.8 percent WPA and a plus-2.0 RE24, while José Fermín added plus-17.2 percent WPA and plus-1.2 RE24. On the mound, Luis Gastelum led Phillies pitchers with plus-5.6 percent WPA, with Rangel and Justin Bruihl also posting positive figures despite the turbulent eighth.