Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins defeated the Baltimore Orioles 9-5 on August 10, 2026, at Target Field, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a modest 55 percent home-win probability into a near-certainty as the game progressed, finishing at 100 percent. Minnesota's offense did its early damage in the third and fourth innings before delivering a decisive five-run seventh that effectively sealed the outcome. Baltimore managed to make the final score respectable with two runs apiece in the eighth and ninth, but the game was long decided by then.

The pivotal moments began in the bottom of the third, when Austin Martin connected on a home run off Trevor Rogers that shifted win probability by plus 10.6 percent in Minnesota's favor. The very next inning, Brooks Lee doubled off Rogers for an additional plus 10.7 percent swing, the single largest play of the contest by that measure. Baltimore briefly answered in the top of the fourth when Jackson Holliday singled off Dean Kremer to generate a plus 5.3 percent swing for the Orioles, but it was the lone meaningful momentum shift the visitors could manage. The bottom of the seventh proved to be the kill shot, with Ryan Jeffers delivering a single off Rico Garcia worth plus 9.4 percent and Martin adding another single for plus 7.1 percent as the Twins plated five runs to push the margin beyond reach.

Individually, Austin Martin led all batters with a plus 14.7 percent WPA and plus 1.9 RE24, contributing across multiple innings. Ryan Jeffers posted the game's highest RE24 at plus 2.1 to go with a plus 5.8 percent WPA, while Brooks Lee added plus 10.2 percent WPA and plus 1.2 RE24. On the pitching side, Dean Kremer was Minnesota's most valuable arm by WPA, credited with plus 24.2 percent, followed by Cam Sanders at plus 10.3 percent.