Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the Cincinnati Reds 7-1 at Nationals Park on August 9, 2026, a result that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked steadily from a 55 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Washington built its advantage incrementally, scoring twice in the second and adding runs in the third, seventh, and eighth innings, while Cincinnati managed just one run on four hits and committed an error. The Nationals' pitching staff was central to the outcome, with Will Dion leading all pitchers at plus-16.2 percent WPA and Trevor Williams contributing plus-15.7 percent WPA in a combined shutdown effort.

The decisive blows came in waves. Abimelec Ortiz delivered the game's single highest-impact at-bat in the bottom of the third, connecting on a home run off Brady Singer that shifted Washington's win probability by plus-9.4 percent, and Ortiz finished the night as the top batter by WPA at plus-10.7 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.1. Jacob Young's sacrifice fly off Singer in the second inning had already moved the needle by plus-6.6 percent. On the Cincinnati side, the moment that most damaged the Reds' dwindling chances came in the top of the eighth, when TJ Friedl grounded into a double play off Trevor Williams, a play that cost Cincinnati 8.9 percent in win probability and effectively ended any realistic path back into the game. Matt McLain's single in that same inning registered a plus-5.1 percent swing but arrived too late to matter.

Daylen Lile rounded out Washington's productive night with a seventh-inning single off Brock Burke worth plus-6.8 percent WPA, finishing second among Nationals batters at plus-5.3 percent WPA for the game. The Nationals out-hit Cincinnati 13 to 4 and played errorless defense, while the Reds' lone run stood as a statistical footnote against a Washington lineup and pitching staff that controlled the contest from the second inning forward.