Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays held on to defeat the Houston Astros 5-4 in ten innings at Daikin Park on August 5, 2026, completing the comeback after trailing through the middle innings. Houston had built a 3-0 lead with three runs in the third, and the score remained there until Toronto answered with three runs of their own in the sixth. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Houston holding a 58% win probability, a figure that shifted dramatically as the game progressed into extra innings before reaching zero for the Astros at the final out.

The decisive moment came in the top of the tenth, when Ernie Clement connected on a home run off Bennett Sousa that swung win probability by 51.7 percentage points, the single largest play of the game by that measure. That gave Toronto a two-run lead heading into the bottom half. Houston pushed one run across in the tenth, but Daulton Varsho's flyout off Chase Lee ended the threat and swung win probability 31.6 points in Toronto's favor, sealing the result. Earlier, Jesús Sánchez had delivered the go-ahead blow in the sixth with a home run off Hunter Brown worth 23.6 points of win probability, while LaMonte Wade Jr. added a double off Spencer Miles in the same frame that moved the needle another 12.1 points. Jeremy Peña's strikeout to end the ninth preserved a tie and contributed 14.0 points in Toronto's direction.

Clement finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-48.3%, paired with a RE24 of plus-1.6, while Varsho contributed plus-33.1% WPA and plus-0.8 RE24. Wade led all players in run-expectancy impact at plus-2.1 RE24 alongside a plus-22.3% WPA mark. On the pitching side, Josh Hader led Toronto's relievers at plus-13.5% WPA, followed by Tyler Rogers at plus-10.9% and Bryan Abreu at plus-10.6%, the latter two helping hold the Astros at bay through the late innings despite Houston out-hitting Toronto ten to five on the night.