Athletics at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds held off the Oakland Athletics 3-2 on August 5, 2026, at Great American Ball Park, with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving the home side a 63% chance of winning — a figure that climbed to 100% by the final out. Cincinnati scored in three separate innings, plating single runs in the second, fifth, and sixth to build and protect a lead that proved just enough against an Athletics offense that managed only four hits on the night.

The decisive sequence came in the fifth inning, when Matt McLain connected for a home run off Jacob Lopez, a swing that added 13.4% to Cincinnati's win probability and represented the game's single most impactful offensive moment. Earlier, Jose Trevino's single off Lopez in the second had already nudged the Reds ahead by 7.8% in win probability, establishing Cincinnati's early footing. Oakland's most consequential threat materialized in the top of the sixth, when Jonah Heim ripped a double off Rhett Lowder for a 15.6% swing in win probability, pulling the Athletics to within one. Dane Myers then contributed two quiet but meaningful moments for Cincinnati — a single in the sixth adding 7.2% and a groundout in the eighth that still registered a 7.8% positive swing as Oakland's chances faded.

Among position players, McLain finished as the top contributor by WPA at plus-9.6%, with Tyler Soderstrom adding plus-6.0% and Dane Myers plus-5.6% in support. On the mound, the Reds bullpen shouldered the win, with Emilio Pagán posting the highest pitching WPA of the night at plus-15.2%, followed closely by Brock Burke at plus-13.7%. Jacob Lopez also contributed plus-9.7% despite surrendering the Heim double, a reflection of how well he otherwise managed Oakland's lineup through his portion of the game.