New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets handed the Cleveland Guardians a 6-2 defeat at Progressive Field on August 4, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had pegged as a 62 percent pre-game home win probability for Cleveland. The Mets seized control early, scoring three runs in the second inning highlighted by a Luis Torrens home run off Joey Cantillo that swung win probability 12.7 percent in New York's favor. Cleveland briefly threatened in the bottom half when Steven Kwan singled off Sean Manaea, a play that shifted the probability 11.7 percent toward the Guardians, but Manaea ultimately held the damage in check. The Mets added a run in the third, another in the fourth, and a final insurance run in the eighth to close out the scoring at 6-2. Cleveland's most sustained late threat came in the seventh, when a Chase DeLauter walk moved the needle 8.7 percent toward the home side, but a Nathaniel Lowe lineout off Daniel Duarte immediately swung momentum 7.8 percent back to New York and effectively ended any realistic comeback scenario.

Torrens was the game's most impactful offensive player, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-19.1 percent and an RE24 of plus-4.0, driven largely by his second-inning blast. DeLauter was Cleveland's most dangerous presence, posting a plus-15.8 percent WPA and plus-2.0 RE24 despite the Guardians falling short, while Jo Adell contributed a plus-10.9 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24 for New York. On the mound, Manaea was the clear difference-maker, delivering a plus-22.3 percent WPA performance that anchored the Mets' pitching effort. Nate Lavender added plus-6.9 percent in relief, and Daniel Duarte contributed a modest plus-0.6 percent despite the late pressure he faced in the seventh. The DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected a complete reversal from the opening number, finishing at zero percent for Cleveland as New York closed out a methodical, wire-to-wire road victory.