MLB Recap · August 3, 2026

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

STL13
Final
NYY7

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
STL21120007013130
NYY0000304007100

The Story

The St. Louis Cardinals erased a 60 percent pre-game home win probability assigned by the DiamondIQ model and handed the New York Yankees a 13-7 defeat at Yankee Stadium on August 3, 2026, holding New York scoreless in six of nine innings while posting seven runs in the eighth alone. St. Louis built a four-run lead through the first four innings before New York clawed back with three runs in the fifth and four more in the seventh, briefly shifting momentum before the Cardinals responded with a dominant eighth that put the game entirely out of reach.

The two most decisive plays of the contest came from Nathan Church and Luis García Jr. Church's home run off Angel Chivilli in the top of the eighth shifted win probability by plus 29.0 percent in St. Louis's favor, the second-largest single-play swing of the game, and he finished as the top performer by WPA at plus 37.0 percent with a RE24 of plus 3.0. García Jr.'s home run in the bottom of the seventh off George Soriano was actually the game's largest single swing, moving the needle plus 32.3 percent for New York at the time, though it only briefly narrowed the Cardinals' lead before St. Louis answered emphatically. Blaze Jordan's triple off Ryan Yarbrough in the eighth added another plus 16.1 percent, and Jimmy Crooks connected for a home run off Chivilli as well, good for plus 12.3 percent. José Caballero contributed a home run off Ryne Stanek in the seventh for plus 15.8 percent and finished second among position players with a plus 16.5 percent WPA.

On the mound, Michael McGreevy was the standout, posting a plus 20.8 percent WPA to lead all pitchers and anchor a Cardinals staff that held New York to seven runs on ten hits with no errors on either side. Kervin Castro and Justin Bruihl each contributed positive outings in relief, adding plus 1.8 and plus 1.3 percent respectively. St. Louis finished with 13 hits and committed no errors, executing cleanly across the board as the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Yankees victory collapsed from 60 percent before first pitch to zero percent by the final out.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025STL bats firstFinalNYY win %STL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 60.1% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Luis García Jr. Home Run
Bot 7th · off George Soriano
+32.3%
Nathan Church Home Run
Top 8th · off Angel Chivilli
+29.0%
Blaze Jordan Triple
Top 8th · off Ryan Yarbrough
+16.1%
José Caballero Home Run
Bot 7th · off Ryne Stanek
+15.8%
Jimmy Crooks Home Run
Top 8th · off Angel Chivilli
+12.3%

Top Batters by WPA

Nathan Church+37.0%+3.0 RE24
Luis García Jr.+25.7%+2.0 RE24
José Caballero+16.5%+0.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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