Miami Marlins at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins shut out the New York Mets 2-0 at Citi Field on August 2, 2026, holding New York scoreless across nine innings despite both clubs finishing with five hits. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the home Mets a 44 percent win probability, but that figure fell to zero by the final out, reflecting how thoroughly Miami controlled the contest.

The game's pivotal sequence came in the fifth inning, when Joe Mack delivered a home run off Robert Stock that shifted win probability 12.7 percent in Miami's favor, accounting for the game's first and ultimately most consequential run. The Mets mounted their most credible threat in the seventh, where Jared Young's double off Sandy Alcantara moved New York's win probability up 16.1 percent and briefly gave the crowd reason for optimism. That momentum dissolved immediately when Michael Petersen induced A.J. Ewing into a groundout, swinging the needle back 14.6 percent. An inning later, Francisco Lindor cracked a double off Tyler Zuber to push New York's chances up another 13.4 percent, only for Luis Robert Jr.'s flyout in the same frame to produce the game's single largest probability swing, a 19.9 percent drop that effectively sealed Miami's victory. Joe Mack added an insurance run in the ninth.

On the individual side, Jared Young led all batters with a 21.9 percent WPA and a 1.2 RE24, though his efforts went unrewarded on the scoreboard. Mack posted 13.5 percent WPA and a 1.1 RE24 to pace Miami offensively. On the mound, Michael Petersen was the game's most impactful pitcher by WPA at plus-32.4 percent, with Tyler Zuber contributing plus-23.3 percent in relief. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting Miami's late-inning pitching as the defining factor in a game that remained tighter in probability terms than the shutout margin suggests.