San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| SD | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 5 | 8 | 1 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres defeated the San Francisco Giants 5-4 at Petco Park on August 2, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win probability moving from 64% before first pitch to 100% by game's end. The outcome was largely shaped by a decisive second inning in which San Diego plated four runs, doing the bulk of the damage that San Francisco would spend the rest of the afternoon trying to overcome. Jackson Merrill's home run off Landen Roupp in that frame carried a win-probability swing of plus 11.5%, and a Jake Cronenworth single added another plus 8.9%, making the bottom of the second the game's most consequential sequence for the Padres.
San Francisco mounted a persistent if ultimately insufficient response. Osleivis Basabe connected for a home run off Griffin Canning in the fifth inning, a swing worth plus 11.1% in win probability that narrowed the deficit and kept the Giants within striking distance. Rafael Devers then delivered the game's single largest win-probability play, a home run off Bradgley Rodriguez in the eighth worth plus 12.7%, pulling San Francisco to within one. A Luis Campusano single in the bottom of the fifth, valued at plus 10.2%, proved critical in pushing back against the Giants' momentum and maintaining enough of a cushion for San Diego to hold on.
On the pitching side, Adrian Morejon was the standout performer of the game by a wide margin, posting a WPA of plus 22.9% to lead all pitchers. Jeremiah Estrada added plus 7.2% and Sam Hentges contributed plus 6.0% as the Padres bullpen preserved the win. Among batters, Merrill finished with a game-high plus 13.1% WPA alongside a RE24 of plus 1.6, while Devers posted plus 12.0% WPA despite pitching for the losing side. The Giants were unable to complete the comeback, falling by a final of 5-4.