St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 5-1 at Rogers Centre on August 1, 2026, in a game that began in relative balance — the DiamondIQ model opened with a 52 percent home win probability — and ended with Toronto's probability at 100 percent. The Blue Jays built their lead incrementally through the middle innings before a three-run seventh inning sealed the outcome and rendered the Cardinals' lone run inconsequential.

The decisive sequence by win-probability impact arrived in the bottom of the seventh, where George Springer delivered a double off Luis Gastelum that shifted Toronto's win probability by plus 13.9 percent, the single largest swing of the game. Springer had already been the Cardinals' primary antagonist, producing a plus 8.7 percent swing with a single off Quinn Mathews in the third inning that scored Toronto's first run. His combined contribution of plus 20.4 percent WPA and plus 1.7 RE24 made him the game's most impactful offensive player by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Alejandro Kirk added the strongest run-environment contribution on the night at plus 2.0 RE24 with a plus 9.9 percent WPA, supporting the Blue Jays' accumulation through the middle of the order. On the St. Louis side, Masyn Winn generated the Cardinals' most meaningful positive swing — a double off Kevin Gausman in the sixth worth plus 9.2 percent WPA — though Jordan Walker's pop out in the fifth represented the game's second-largest negative swing at minus 9.5 percent, a moment that encapsulated the Cardinals' inability to capitalize against Gausman, who finished as the most effective pitcher by WPA at plus 10.6 percent. Braydon Fisher reinforced the Toronto effort at plus 9.9 percent WPA in relief, with Mason Fluharty adding plus 4.0 percent to close out the Cardinals on a night when St. Louis managed eleven hits but generated only one run.