Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| BAL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | - | 6 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 6-4 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 31, 2026, in a game that appeared relatively even through six innings before Baltimore seized control with a decisive four-run seventh. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 51 percent home win probability, reflecting just how closely matched the two sides were entering the contest, but by the final out that figure had climbed to 100 percent as the Orioles pulled away.
The game's turning point arrived emphatically in the bottom of the seventh, where two swings of the bat reshaped the outcome entirely. Gunnar Henderson launched a triple off Tim Mayza that added 32.0 percentage points to Baltimore's win probability, the single largest swing of the night, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand followed with a double off Orion Kerkering that added another 21.6 points. Together those two plays effectively ended the competitive portion of the game. Philadelphia had held a share of the lead earlier, as Trea Turner's home run off Brandon Young in the third inning added 10.5 percentage points and J.T. Realmuto's solo shot off Young in the sixth added 13.5 more, but those contributions proved insufficient. A Leody Taveras grounded into double play in the sixth off Andrew Painter cost the Orioles 8.0 percentage points of win probability, briefly arresting their momentum before the seventh inning erased any remaining doubt.
Among individual performers, Henderson and Encarnacion-Strand led Baltimore's offense with WPA figures of plus-23.0 and plus-21.6 respectively, while Encarnacion-Strand posted the game's best RE24 mark at plus-1.4. On the pitching side, Andrew Painter was the standout despite yielding the late runs, finishing with plus-26.6 WPA, supported by Yennier Cano at plus-8.1 and Tyler Wells at plus-6.3. Realmuto led Philadelphia's contributors with plus-14.2 WPA, but the Phillies could not sustain their offensive threat long enough to hold off Baltimore's late surge.