Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres held off the Colorado Rockies 8-7 on July 28, 2026 at Petco Park, surviving a scrappy comeback attempt to claim the win. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving San Diego a 65% chance of winning at home, and by the final out that estimate had reached 100%, though the path there was anything but clean. Colorado committed four errors on the night against San Diego's one, and the Rockies posted a 10-hit, seven-run effort that kept the game uncomfortably close deep into the evening.

The game's decisive moments were spread across multiple innings and swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate in both directions. Mickey Moniak's third-inning home run off Michael King delivered the largest single swing in Colorado's favor, adding 18.1% to the Rockies' win probability and giving them a four-run frame that briefly put them in front. Ezequiel Tovar was a persistent thorn for Colorado, drawing a pivotal eighth-inning walk off Adrian Morejon that added 19.2% win probability, then doubling off Bradgley Rodriguez in the seventh for a 17.6% swing. On the San Diego side, Jake Cronenworth grounded into a double play in the sixth against Antonio Senzatela, costing the Padres 17.9% win probability at a critical juncture. Luis Rengifo ultimately delivered the winning blow in the ninth, drawing a walk off Jimmy Herget with a 22.0% win-probability swing that proved to be the game's single largest positive moment for the home side.

Manny Machado led all position players with a 35.6% WPA contribution and a RE24 of plus-1.8, while Fernando Tatis Jr. was close behind at plus-33.7% WPA and led all batters with a RE24 of plus-2.8. Tovar paced Colorado's offense by WPA at plus-30.3% despite being on the losing side. On the mound, Mason Miller was the most impactful arm of the night, posting a plus-13.5% WPA in his role for San Diego, while Michael Lorenzen finished at minus-7.3% WPA, the worst mark among pitchers in this contest.